Alimentation Couche tard

Resumen

  • Opera en las estaciones de servicio de canadá.
  • Altas ventajas competitivas (marketing, localización, escala, directiva)
  • Sector myu resistente en crisis
  • 15% CAGR
  • Altos márgenes
  • Sector fragmentado en cosolidación
  • Mercado muyy estable
  • Alto FCF
  • Insiders alineados
  • Negocio fácil de entender

INFORMACIÓN

Directiva

  • Alain bouchard –> Actual CEO desde 1988 y fundador de la empresa.
    • Shares: 2021 –> Clase A = 115,352M; Clase B = 14M

Modelo de negocio

Retailer de tiendas de conveniencia. La mayoría integradas en gasolineras.

Tiene un modelo de negocio mixto en el que cuenta con tiendas propias, operadas por la compañía o por empresas independientes; también cuenta con franquicias.

  • ~10400 Sites for which the real estate is controlled by Couche-Tard (through ownership or lease agreements) and for which the stores (and/or the service stations) are operated by Couche-Tard or one of its commission agents. This includes stand alone car wash sites.

  • ~1400 Sites for which the real estate is controlled by Couche-Tard (through ownership or lease agreements) and for which the stores (and/or the service stations) are operated by an independent operator in exchange for rent and to which Couche-Tard sometimes provides road transportation fuel through supply contracts. Some of these sites are subject to a franchise agreement, licensing or other similar agreement under one of our main or secondary banners

  • ~1400 Sites controlled and operated by independent operators. Couche-Tard either supplies road transportation fuel through supply contracts or operates the road transportation fuel activities. Some of these sites are subject to a franchise agreement, licensing or other similar agreement under one of our main or secondary banners.

  • ~1200 Stores operated by an independent operator through a franchising, licensing or another similar agreement under one of our main or secondary banners

De las anteriores, solo 1200 son gasolineras automáticas que no venden más que fuel.

No tengo info sobre el nº de estaciones de recarga eléctrica.

Creación de valor

No matter the context, to create value, acquisitions must be concluded under optimal conditions. Therefore, we do not prioritize store count growth at the expense of profitability

In addition to acquisitions, organic development plays a crucial role in the growth of our net earnings. We are committed to continuing to build and expand our network in key geographies where we can leverage our strengths to create value for our Corporation and its shareholders. Highlights include the ongoing improvements we have made to our offerings, such as our Fresh Food, Fast program, the continued rollout of our Inner Circle loyalty program, as well as our innovative and sustainable mobility solutions.

Mercado

  • We are the leader in the Canadian convenience store industry.
  • In the United States, we are one of the largest independent convenience store operators.
  • In Europe, we are a leader in the convenience store and mobility retail business in the Scandinavian countries (Norway, Sweden, and Denmark), in the Baltic countries (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania), in Belgium, as well as in Ireland, and we have a strong presence in Luxembourg, Germany, the Netherlands and Poland.
  • In Asia, we operate a network of company-operated convenience stores in Hong Kong Special Administrative Region of the People’s Republic of China (“Hong Kong SAR”) with an enviable local position.

In the United States, the convenience store sector is fragmented and currently undergoing consolidation. We are actively participating in this process through strategic acquisitions, gaining market share as competitors close their sites, and enhancing our product offerings

Latin America and Southeast Asia remain highly attractive markets for expansion.

Given the varying stages of vehicle electrification in these areas, we have identified a unique opportunity to adapt our strategy to local market dynamics.

In Europe and Canada, the sector is often dominated by a few major players, including integrated oil companies. We intend to study investment opportunities that might present themselves, as significant synergies remain to be unlocked by bridging the regional gaps in our current network

tiendas

  • 2024: total 16,800 stores
    • north america: company-operated. 9239 convenience stores, including 8191 stores with road transportation fuel dispensing. 99,000 people are employed
    • Europe: company-operated. 4882 stores, the majority of which offer road transportation fuel and convenience products while the others are unmanned automated fuel stations which only offer road transportation fuel. We also offer other products, including energy for stationary engine. 46,000 people are employed
    • Asia
      • company-operated. 389 convenience stores in Hong Kong, offering a strong on-the-go food offer as well as a variety of other merchandise items and services. Approximately 4,000 people are employed
    • licensing agreement. Circle K banner. in Cambodia, Egypt, Guam, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia, Jamaica, Macau, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Tanzania, United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam)

Capital allocation

Expansión orgánica

  • 2024: 16 nuevas abiertas y 61 en construcción

Adquisiciones

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retorno medio anaual de las adquisiciones = 15%

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  • 2021:
    • Intento de compra de Carrefour por €17.000M. Oposición del Gobierno francés por razones de “soberanía alimentaria”
  • 2024:
    • GetGo Café + Market (“GetGo”) 270 tiendas en USA for a purchase price of approximately $1.6 billion using our available cash and/or existing credit facilities,
    • Texaco, 9 tiendas en irlanda. The transaction, which would be financed using our available cash, is expected to close before the end of calendar year 2024
    • Couche-Tard opera en 31 países en los que dispone de más de 16.700 tiendas y alrededor de 149.000 empleados
    • Seven & i Holdings cuenta con más de 85.000 tiendas de conveniencia, gasolineras y puntos de venta; y unos 157.000 empleados.
    • Agosto: Propuesta rechazada de compra a la a la Japonesa 7eleven por $38.700M ($14,86/share) debido a que la oferta “infravalora enormemente” la compañía. probablemente, encararía obstáculos antimonopolio en Estados Unidos, dado que el nuevo grupo combinado sería el mayor del sector de tiendas de conveniencia en este mercado
    • Octubre: Propuesta de compra a la Japonesa 7eleven por $42.800M ($18,18/share)

Recompra acciones

  • 2024-2025:
    • renewal of our share repurchase program, which took effect on May 1, 2024. The renewed share repurchase program allows us to repurchase up to 78.1 million shares, representing 10.0%

Dividendos

  • 2024:
    • declared a quarterly dividend of CA 17.5¢ per share for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 to shareholders on record as at September 13, 2024, and approved its payment effective September 27, 2024.

Deuda

  • Se sienten cómodos entre 1-4x

  • 2024:

    • we fully repaid our CA $700.0 million senior unsecured notes issued on July 26, 2017.
    • we settled the cross-currency interest rate swaps associated with the notes, which had an unfavorable fair value of $51.7 million at settlement

Segmentos

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Fundamentales

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  • 2021: 45% converción EBITDA a FCF alt text alt text

Perspectivas de futuro

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Sector

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ANÁLISIS

Debilidades y fortalezas

  • ventajas competititvas de Escala, know-how equipo gestor, equipo gestor alineado?, estrategia de M&A

    Riesgos y oportubnidades

  • El vehículo electrico.
    • Su uso generalizado supondrá la desaparición de las estaciones de servicio?
    • Su uso generalizado aumentará/dismunuirá el nº de clientes por estación y/o el tiempo que pasan ene ellas?

Como se lee abajo (extracto de 2021), su “experimento” en Noruega indica que más que un riesgo es una oportunidad ya que los clientes pasan más tiempo en la estación de servicio. alt text

En cualquier caso, es posible que el mercado tenga miedo de que sea un riesgo y la cotización no suba

  • Sensibilidad inflación y materias primas (fuel)

  • Sector poco atractivo Incluso ignorando lo anterior, es dificil que existan revalorizaciones en bolsa importantes.

  • Aquisiciones Es posible que compren demasiado caro. La integración no parece que sea un riesgo por el tipo de negocio.

  • Crecimiento orgánico Es posible que dejen de crecer si se detiene la apertura de nuevas tiendas.

Valoración

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  • Optimista en la que crece y se apalanca para adquicisiones alt text

  • normal, si se centra en crecimiento orgánico y deja de hacer M&A -> reduce deuda y recompra acciones alt text

  • conservadora alt text

  • pesimista
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