Análisis macro economía USA

Equity performance

US equities now account for 70 per cent of the market value of global developed market stocks in MSCI’s widely followed World benchmark, compared with 30 per cent in the 1980s.

Investors sentiment

Insider buys/sells

Consumers sentiment

Inflación

Intereses

Analysts forecasts

• Ten major banks, including Morgan Stanley, HSBC and Goldman Sachs, expect the S&P 500 index, the main US equities barometer, to rise roughly 8 per cent on average to about 6,550 between now and the end of next year, taking it to fresh highs. That would be below the index’s historical average annual return of about 11 per cent.

• Bankim Chadha, Deutsche Bank’s chief US equities strategist, forecast an S&P 500 rally partly driven by large share buybacks. The bank expects buybacks rising to about $325bn a quarter next year, compared with the current rate of $275bn, to keep pace with corporate earnings. “An increase in the buyback payout ratio could see them rising even faster,” he said. “Valuations are unambiguously high but likely to sustain and maybe even go higher.”

• Big US tech companies are “entering a new phase”, said Venu Krishna, a strategist at Barclays, adding that there were “pockets of over-enthusiasm”, “We are cautious because it is unrealistic for these kinds of exceptional returns to continue,” he said. “Big Tech are fully valued . . . US equities are fully valued.”

• Analysts cautioned that there was still uncertainty around how inflationary Trump’s second term in office would be with potential tariffs on a host of countries including China and Mexico. But banks expect tariffs to be countered by the president-elect’s pledge to cut corporate tax, with Goldman Sachs arguing that the two policies of the incoming president would “roughly offset one another”.

Sources: FT